How deep are ideological divisions in Poland? – first report from the NCF x USWPS polarization study
There is a widespread sense that Poland is deeply polarized — an impression reinforced by the opinions of scholars, experts, and journalists. But what is the reality of relations between citizens? To what extent do we truly hold different views, how much do we actually dislike one another because of these differences, and how do we experience divisions in everyday life? To explore these questions, we conducted a nationwide study, in partnership with SWPS University.
The State of Polarization 2025 is the first comprehensive study of social and political divisions in Poland, based on a representative sample of 2,351 respondents. In total, we will publish three reports from this study. Today, we are publishing (in Polish) the first report, devoted to ideological polarization. It shows the actual differences in views between Poles across 13 key socio-political issues of 2025 and measures the level of polarization in each of them.
Key findings from the 1st report:
Actual differences in views between Poles are significantly smaller than one might assume from observing the political debate and social moods in the country. According to our study, the average level of ideological polarization across 13 issues that respondents considered important in 2025, measured using the Taylor-Herman index, is 0.37. This indicates a moderate level of ideological polarization (range: 0.32–0.65).
We did not observe strong ideological polarization in any of the three issues that Poles consider most important in 2025. Citizens differ in their views on how to address waiting lists for doctors, improve working conditions, and reform the tax system — but these differences are moderate rather than strong. In none of these three areas are there deep differences in views between voters of the 2025 leading presidential candidates Karol Nawrocki and Rafał Trzaskowski.
The strongest ideological polarization was observed on the issue of holding politicians accountable – between respondents who favored harsher punishment for politicians and those who believed politicians should be held to the same standards as ordinary citizens. This reflects the ongoing campaign of political reckoning between parties. Notably, the most polarizing issue turned out to be one concerning politicians themselves and amplified by them, rather than problems directly affecting citizens.
Elevated ideological polarization is also visible in worldview-related issues – specifically, the permissibility of abortion and the ideological neutrality of schools. Both issues are closely linked to religion, tradition, and identity – areas in which reaching compromise is particularly difficult. At the same time, these are issues in which political actors have introduced changes, thereby opening up space for a conflict of worldviews.
Based on the results of the ideological polarization study, we conclude that there is Yes, there are clear differences of opinion on worldview issues, but in socio-economic matters that are crucial to everyday life—such as access to healthcare or working – conditions – Polish citizens largely expect similar solutions from politicians and the state.
It therefore appears that politicians are the primary source of ideological polarization. When polarization does occur, it largely concerns politicians themselves or problems they have created. Deepening differences in views has become a method of gaining, maintaining, and regaining power. The main obstacle to the agreement described above is the prevailing mode of political practice and the political class that upholds it.
The study was designed by Dr. Olga Białobrzeska (FNW/SWPS University), in cooperation with Prof. Ben Stanley (SWPS University), Prof. Marta Żerkowska-Balas (SWPS University), and Wawrzyniec Smoczyński (FNW). The research was conducted by the Ariadna Nationwide Research Panel and funded by a grant from the National Science Centre (NCN) no. 2020/39/B/HS6/00853.
To read the full report in Polish, download the PDF.